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Thursday, December 16, 2010

The Music is playing, the crowds are deluded, we have Risk

There is (I think and hope) a growing number of us in the markets now that wonders what madness has gripped Stock Indices again, even as we watch the major markets merrily march towards money mayhem and, I believe, an inevitable sorry end to this buying frenzy. Firstly, the idea that everything is dandy, and we are inevitably into a sustainable economic recovery is laughable…as is its foundation in the Ben Bernanke belief (100% conviction, he proclaims!) that any inflationary consequences from the Quantitative Easing festival can be quickly nailed in the bud …..the Fed’s newfound zest for higher inflation and employment to the detriment of its monetary perspective is bemusing at best. There is stark reminder in markets of the now-infamous statement of a major CEO that while the music is still playing, the dance is on.

The resultant hangover is potentially going to be huge. And there is little point claiming it was all so unexpected

And rates meanwhile keep climbing, with Treasuries hurdling 3.5% so far from 2.5% just a few weeks ago..

I fear an almighty crash, with the Eurozone crisis perhaps offering the tipping point.
Don’t BLINK !

1 comment:

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